Continuing to protect coastal infrastructure and valued resources through strategic adaptation will become increasingly pertinent as sea level rise accelerates and tidal flooding and severe storm surge events increase in frequency. The Captiva Erosion Prevention District (CEPD) has actively invested in coastal resilience for decades through beach and dune nourishment and shoreline enhancement projects. The CEPD authorized the development of the "Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Analysis" for Captiva Island to complete the following objectives:
- Form a deliverable, consistent with state guidance for vulnerability assessments, which is inclusive of sea level rise scenarios for planning horizons in 2040 and 2070 based on the NOAA Intermediate-Low and Intermediate-High projections and inclusive of findings from the 2020 Captiva Island Resiliency Assessment and other recent publicly available assessments.
- Develop a series of aerial maps to show the potential inundation under sea level rise scenarios in 2040 and 2070 and additional potential water level elevation scenarios.
This vulnerability assessment was conducted in alignment with state guidance and legislation. The analysis accounts for sea level rise projected for 2040 and 2070, tidal flooding, storm surge, and rainfall and surge flooding expected from a 100-year storm and 500-year storm under current sea level conditions. The flood and sea level scenarios were visualized and mapped to determine the extent of the island and the on and off island critical infrastructure that would be exposed. The potential impacts associated with each scenario were summarized by asset type including critical infrastructure, critical facilities, and valued resources on Captiva Island. The likelihood of occurrence of specific scenarios and the associated magnitude of impact of the
flooding was analyzed island-wide and by asset to assess risk and rank vulnerabilities.
The findings of the vulnerability assessment are intended to support subsequent funding pursuits and project conceptualization to increase community and coastal resilience. This effort may support the incorporation of future conditions planning into the CEPD's Beach and Shore Preservation Program and will serve as the first phase of development of a comprehensive resilience strategy.Vulnerability Analysis.pdf